Double standards and a “three-stage system” for resolving the war in Ukraine: what is the catch of the meeting between the American and Russian delegations?

The thaw in U.S.-Russian relations amid the declared desire of both sides to “resolve” the war in Ukraine is rapidly gaining momentum.

On February 18, just five days after the long-awaited but still unexpected phone call between Trump and Putin, the two leaders met in Saudi Arabia. Such a rapid development of events indicates that both the White House and the Kremlin, each pursuing their own goals, grabbed the opportunity to establish contact and achieve certain results as quickly as possible. As the saying goes, catch a fish while it's catching. It is also important that the first meeting was attended by the foreign ministers of the United States and Russia, as well as Putin's aide Ushakov and Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz, which means that, in diplomatic terms, the meeting was held at a high level.

Given the recent extreme antagonism between the United States and Russia, both sides could begin to probe each other's positions from afar with a series of meetings of some experts or narrowly focused groups of negotiators, and not publicly. However, the composition of the delegations and their announcement of discussing “global issues” indicates a desire to normalize relations as soon as possible and reach an understanding not only over the war in Ukraine but also on many other topics.

The meeting at the negotiating table in Riyadh lasted almost five hours and apparently left a good impression on all participants.

“We couldn't have imagined a better outcome,” U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio told reporters.

“The talks were respectful and calm. We not only listened, but also heard each other,” said his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.

Kirill Dmitriev, a member of the Russian negotiating team and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who is considered one of Putin's key people for establishing ties with the Trump administration, went on to say that “there were many jokes, very positive human communication,” which sounds very cynical given the ongoing missile attacks on Ukraine at that moment.

As a result of several hours of such “very positive human communication,” both sides agreed that working groups should be organized to discuss in detail how to end the war in Ukraine.

According to Fox News, the delegations also allegedly discussed a “three-step plan to end the war in Ukraine,” which would involve several stages of a ceasefire on the current front line, followed by presidential elections in Ukraine and finally a peace agreement between the new president and Putin.

These can be considered the main results of the conversation for us, although, in addition, the Russians and Americans agreed to send ambassadors to each other's capitals as soon as possible, to work together on the development of the Arctic (competition in this region is a very important topic for Trump, because it is not for nothing that he fantasizes about Greenland's accession), talked about the prospects for lifting sanctions against Russia, and so on. In short, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington looks like a global process of rapprochement and restoration of good working relations, if not friendship.

Against the backdrop of such compliments and diplomatic curtsies, Mike Waltz pointed to the need to resolve the war with “concessions on all sides.” And the Russians once again repeated from several of their talking heads the mantra that Ukraine's accession to NATO is inadmissible, which should supposedly be documented at the level of the Alliance's leadership, and preemptively challenged any options for deploying Western peacekeepers in our country.

It is logical to ask the question: what place does Ukraine's position have in all this suddenly emerging understanding between the Americans and the Russians?
At the moment, it seems that the Americans have chosen the tactic of a double game, i.e., parallel negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, in which Moscow has been given the right of primacy as Washington's global opponent.

Today, the situation of February 13 is almost repeating itself, when Trump first called Putin and then dialed Zelenskyy after the American Secretary of the Economy tried to persuade him to sign an agreement on the transfer of rare earth metals to the Americans.

The same is true now - after the morning meeting of the American delegation with the Russians in Riyadh, US Special Representative Keith Kellogg is expected to arrive in Kyiv on February 18, and he will undoubtedly know about the previously expressed wishes of his Russian counterparts.

It is likely that, despite American statements about the alleged importance of Ukraine's position for peace, we are only being asked to agree to the general positions that have already been agreed upon by the major players, leaving Kyiv with the option of adjusting some of the details of the agreement. To put it even more simply, it seems that the position of Ukraine, or at least the current administration of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, irritates both Americans and Russians equally. That's why they are trying to leave us at the door, outside the framework of major negotiations. It is not for nothing that the United States, following the Russians, is increasingly promoting the idea of the need to hold presidential elections in Ukraine, which was again stated in the “three-step plan.”

“Zelenskiy is excluded from US-Russia discussions on Ukraine's fate,” Bloomberg says.

It seems that this diplomatic scheme is currently working, and Ukraine has found itself in the position of a lagging party trying to catch up with the train of US-Russian friendship. It is not for nothing that in recent days President Zelenskyy has tried to involve China, for example, in the negotiations, thereby trying to put pressure on the pain point of the American leadership.

It is also likely not without reason that on February 17, the day before the meeting between the Americans and Russians in Riyadh, Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United Arab Emirates and then went to Turkey, both of which have long played the role of mediators between the opposing sides. On February 19, he was also scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, where American negotiators were probably waiting for him. However, after their warm conversation with the Moscow delegation, Zelenskyy postponed the trip at the last minute until March.

The situation around the settlement of the war in Ukraine is developing very quickly. The next round of this process will begin on the evening of February 18 with Kellogg's arrival in Kyiv. Initially, he planned to spend three days in Ukraine. There is still hope for some kind of just peace for Ukraine, but summing up all the factors, it seems that the Trump administration is betting on our adversaries.

Author - Nickolay Yakovenko