Between a rock and a hard place: Where Trump's political course is leading Ukraine and what we should expect

US President Donald Trump's rhetoric toward Ukraine is becoming more and more aggressive, and his desire to reach an agreement with Russia as soon as possible, without hesitation, is becoming more and more obvious.
Dumskaya analyst Mykola Yakovenko tries to understand what is going on in the mind of the new owner of the White House and to predict where the crooked path of his policy may lead us next. Also, does Ukraine have any chance of surviving this maelstrom?

LATEST EVENTS

Since the previous article about the talks between the Americans and Russians in Riyadh, Trump has been paying more and more attention to criticizing Ukraine and specifically our president and commander-in-chief, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Judging by the American leader's statements, the White House's position now is that Ukraine “should not have allowed the war to happen,” and that Zelenskyy is a “dictator without elections” who “holds on to power and money” and is ready to continue the war as long as he wants to keep his seat with the alleged real support of only 4% of the population.

At the same time, Trump has not voiced any criticism of Russia's continuous assaults on the front line or daily missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities. Moreover, for the first time since 2014, the United States refused to co-sponsor a draft UN General Assembly resolution demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from Ukraine, and, according to the Financial Times, US representatives oppose calling Russia an “aggressor” in the G7 joint statement on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

It seems that the American establishment has turned its approach to assessing the conflict upside down. Now Ukraine is almost the culprit of the war, and Zelenskyy is a bloody tyrant who, if he did not start it, did not lift a finger to stop it.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is playing a game of give-and-take with Trump. On February 19, he reiterated that he “highly appreciated” the contact that had taken place, was ready to talk to Trump, and was determined to end the war in every way possible. Bloomberg points out that “Trump's statements on Ukraine exceeded any expectations of the Kremlin.”

JUST BUSINESS AND SPHERES OF INTEREST

It is highly likely that the reasons for Trump's rapidly emerging hostility lie not in the Russians' peacekeeping mantras in Riyadh, but in two earlier refusals to transfer Ukrainian rare earth metals to the United States - first on February 13 in Kyiv, and then on February 15 in Munich.

Once again, returning to the meeting between American and Russian parliamentarians in Saudi Arabia, we can assume that the Russians rolled out their standard set of maximalist demands to their opponents, ranging from demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine to the withdrawal of American troops from Eastern European NATO member states. At least, Romanian Presidential Chief of Staff Cristian Diaconescu said that the Russian delegation proposed a new division of spheres of influence, which, among other things, would have included the withdrawal of the American contingent from his country.

We can assume that Trump does not care and is really ready for such concessions in global politics. Perhaps, with some reservations, he will still offer the Russians to calm down on some issues. However, the annual 8% cut in the US defense budget announced in the media shows that the US is ready to wind down its overseas presence, even if only in Europe.

It seems that Trump really does not care about the future of Ukraine, and he is ready to fully trust the approach of the Russian aggressors in order to get rid of our “problem” as soon as possible.

It is also extremely likely that Donald Trump, as a billionaire, the largest American businessman, developer and gambling business owner, primarily views US policy through the prism of financial interests, meaning that all of this is a really big and multifaceted deal for him, and he has pulled off many of them in his lifetime. Deporting migrants, cutting federal funding sources, and waging trade wars by raising tariffs are one side of the coin. The other is in the realm of gaining benefits through redistribution of spheres of influence, and Ukrainian rare earth metals are a trump card in this game.

Probably, offering this option was a somewhat hasty move on the part of the Ukrainian leadership, which our overseas “partners” seized on. However, the card has already been played, and now Trump is seeking to press Zelensky, whether he is a “dictator” or not, to sign the agreement by any means necessary.

There is another way to look at the situation. By pushing Ukraine to give the United States 50% of its rare earth minerals, the Trump administration is asking us to accept the position of a subordinate country to the United States, i.e., its resource colony, in which a kind of peace, security, and even democracy will be maintained only because it is in American economic interests. The alternative is that if the Americans leave us alone, Russia will come here and take much more, including the freedom and lives of Ukrainians.

The Russians understand Trump's business approach, because it is not for nothing that they offered joint Arctic development as an alternative in Riyadh. The only question is which of the parties will be more negotiable and how many trillions from the development of resources in Ukraine or beyond the Arctic Circle will “drip” into the American budget.

OUR PROSPECTS

Let's face it, things look pretty bad.

At the moment, it is almost certain that Ukraine will not receive any new military assistance from the United States in the foreseeable future. Exchanging compliments with Putin and pursuing a deal does not provide for such options.
“New arms deliveries will not help Kyiv - we need peace,” US Vice President J.D. Vance said on February 20.

However, the deliveries of American weapons and equipment that were financed in the last weeks of the Biden administration are still ongoing. It can be assumed that in order to put pressure on Ukraine and make Zelenskyy more cooperative, the new US leadership may figure out how to cancel or freeze these supplies, again driving our country into a “shell famine,” which will quickly result in even more negative developments on the frontline.

“Let's be honest: it will be very difficult for us without the United States. And we have to do everything possible to maintain their support for Ukraine,” said Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, which is certainly hard to argue with.

If we let our imaginations run wild, we can assume that Trump may even demand that Ukraine return the weapons it received from America. Yes, it sounds crazy, but why not? After all, after the Americans left Afghanistan in 2021, leaving a huge amount of weapons and equipment at their military bases, they repeatedly demanded that the extremely hostile Taliban return all this good to them in exchange for certain economic preferences and a more favorable attitude from Washington. Why not offer to disarm Ukraine?

Another important step to tighten the screws, which is quite easy to imagine, is disconnecting our country from the Starlink satellite Internet, which plays a huge role in the communication of the Defense Forces units at the front. The switch for this technology is in the hands of the madman Elon Musk, who, having outstripped Trump, has long been one of the main American hawks against Ukraine and for peace with the Russian occupiers.

Moreover, the Starliner's maintenance for Ukraine was also paid for from the US budget through the Pentagon, which has recently been headed by Trump's friend and critic of Ukraine, Peter Hegseth.

If they decide to cut off our Starlink, it will be a much more acute problem than even the lack of missiles. Lack of communication at the front in a matter of days can lead to the most catastrophic consequences.

In addition to such strikes on defense capabilities, friends from Washington may also try to put pressure on our politicians, for example, by imposing sanctions or opening criminal cases against Zelenskyy's inner circle, and possibly then the president himself.

Is there any reason to worry about the fate of Andriy Yermak or other high-ranking representatives of the Presidential Office? However, such steps could provoke even more antagonism in Ukrainian society or alienate a number of partners.

Let's not discount Trump's favorite tool, the imposition of duties that could hit the Ukrainian agricultural sector or other still more or less vibrant areas of the Ukrainian economy.

WHAT TO DO?

Currently, Ukraine's leadership's response to the evolving attacks from Washington is in the media and diplomatic realms. Despite the accumulated questions to Zelenskyy, in recent days the media space has been abuzz with calls to “close ranks” around the president, saying that only we, especially in times of war, can decide who runs the country and who is a democratic leader here.

The diplomatic work is to seek rescue from European neighbors, who feel the danger of the situation much more than Trump does, and therefore have not yet refused allied assistance. Within a few days, European leaders met twice for emergency consultations in Paris, where they allegedly agreed to send 30,000 peacekeepers to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Washington with this idea on February 21.

Ukraine's leadership is still considering the option of a treaty on the extraction of rare earth resources, neither agreeing nor refusing. Most likely, the details of this agreement are being negotiated; the media have already reported that a framework declaration on cooperation with the United States may be signed first, after which documents with details of such cooperation will be drawn up. The Americans have not abandoned the idea of taking possession of our mineral resources and continue to put pressure.

“Slow down, seriously revise the minerals agreement and sign it. The United States and Ukraine can settle their differences. America is playing shuttle diplomacy to advance peace talks on Ukraine,” Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said once again.

Meanwhile, Trump's original idea to achieve a “just peace” for Ukraine seems to have been forgotten. Amid the scandals and accusations, the US president's special envoy for “conflict resolution,” Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kyiv on February 19. On February 20, he met with Zelenskyy, and a press conference was planned to follow their conversation, which was canceled at the last minute at the request of the American side.

Earlier, we said that, apparently, Trump was leaning toward the Russian position in the negotiations. Now we are seeing the real consequences of this process. And, frankly, it's hard to imagine that Keith Kellogg will be the person who can convince him.

But Ukraine will win anyway! With the Americans, without them, against them.

Author - Nickolay Yakovenko